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An AI model shows health centers in California aren’t prepared for power outages

In the affected areas by the Lava, Tennant, Salt fires, there are approximately 20 federally-qualified health centers. These centers provide primary care for low-income patients and are part of the state’s healthcare safety net. Andrew Schroeder from Direct Relief, who manages analytics programs for the humanitarian aid organisation, said that despite the risk of fire to the centers, none of them had backup generators.

This is crucial information for aid groups and officials: If the power goes out due to the fires, these centers may not be able keep medicines and vaccines cool or use computer systems that contain patient records. However, this information is not available to Schroeder and anyone else involved in response efforts before May. States and industry associations are often unaware of the backups available, despite the risk of shutoffs and outages during extreme heat or fire season.

Schroeder states that there was not enough information on where generators are located, what solar panels they have, or if people have installed backup batteries for refrigerators.

A new AI model that was completed at the end May has given them a better understanding of backup plans at these centers, just in time to prepare for the devastating fire season. According to Jeni Stockman (senior program manager at Macro-Eyes artificial intelligence company Macro-Eyes), it shows a sparse terrain: Only around 30% of facilities have access to backup power and refrigeration for medical supplies. She says, "It indicates there's an enormous gap in the resilience of sites."

This information is crucial for responding to the COVID-19 epidemic. The vaccines must be kept at ultra-cold temperatures. The risk of losing doses is high when shots are sent to places that can't keep them cool during power outages. Macro-Eyes collaborated with the California Primary Care Association to create a tool that would help map the centers' resources. This project was funded by Direct Relief. Robert Beaudry, Acting President of CPCA, said that the groups quickly realized there could be other uses for it beyond COVID-19. For example, where can they direct their aid in other emergency situations.

California is experiencing power outages due to the fires and [power company] PG&E’s ongoing problems. Beaudry says that we wanted to find out which health centers could still operate. "The more information we had about these issues, the better we were able to inform California's emergency preparedness."

Macro-Eyes' work in Sierra Leone, which identified the resources available to health facilities at any time, inspired the design of this project. Benjamin Fels (founder and CEO of Macro-Eyes), says that the government did not have enough information to determine which health centers had electricity access. He says that COVID-19 means that when you receive these very rare vaccines, it is important to not send them to a place where they are not kept cold. This basically means that you're throwing them out.

Schroeder and Direct Relief had conversations with the company, which discovered that Californians didn't have this information. Backup generators are mandatory for all hospitals in the US that receive federal funding. However, outpatient and community care clinics, which include federally-qualified health centers, often do not have backup generators.

Medicare and Medicaid can be charged to facilities for services. Therefore, they must report certain information to federal government: demographic information about patients served, information on their insurance status, etc. Schroeder states that it is a lengthy form. He says that it does not contain any information about actual infrastructure.

The CPCA has surveyed the centers in order to determine what resources and power sources were available. However, they haven't uncovered much information. Beaudry claims that the association was able to determine the power resources at around 8 percent state sites.

Macro-Eyes' model was able to fill in the gaps. It draws data from a variety of publicly accessible sources, including lists of locations that permit generators and satellite images of solar panels. It can then infer similar features between different types of health sites. For example, if the model has data from surveys on three of the 10 health centers that serve similar populations and have similar locations, it can project that the other seven sites would have the same resources. The model can be validated by health centers, which allows the AI to continue learning.

CPCA was able to map out the data and see areas where power is restricted. This information could be used by officials and aid groups to determine where supplies should go. Schroeder states that this could include COVID-19 vaccines, which need to be frozen, or insulin, which needs to remain refrigerated. He says, "We often support insulin needs after disasters." "We must know where we feel comfortable sending items that need cold storage without also sending the ability to back them up."

This data could be used by organizations to determine which areas in the state need extra generators. DeeAnne McCallin is the director of health IT at CPCA. "We can see where you'd have islands of rural population that could be disconnected," she says. According to her, the California Department of Public Health told CPCA recently that they might have additional freezers or refrigerators and she asked if any health centers could use them. This is the type of question that data could answer.

It is also useful for health centers because they can see if there are nearby facilities with generators or refrigerators that they can direct patients to.

Macro-Eyes can be used anywhere, not just in California. Direct Relief and the company believe that the Gulf Coast could be a potential next target, after it has been ravaged by more devastating hurricanes.

Major disasters like the hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Maria and California fires have shown that having a backup power supply plan is crucial to your preparedness. This is especially important for healthcare, which is crucial during disaster response. Schroeder states, "We have designed a system of health care that is in some ways very advanced, very unequal, and really fragile when it come to accessing power."

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